THE METHOD OF ARGUMENT

The Method of Argument ~ 71 ~ The distinguished physicist, Robert Morris Page, makes the important point that the “test of an hypothesis involves the establishment of conditions consistent with the hypothesis to produce results predicted by the hypothesis on the assumption that the hypothesis is true.” He then goes on to narrate an incident which clearly bears this out: When ships were built of wood because it was commonly believed that in order to float, they had to be built of materials lighter than water, the proposition was made that ships could be built of iron and still float. A certain blacksmith stated that ships built of iron could not float because iron would not float, and he proved his point by tossing a horseshoe into a tub of water. His assumption that the hypothesis was untrue foreclosed the possibility of his devising an experiment consistent with the hypothesis, which might have produced the result, predicted by the hypothesis. Had he assumed the hypothesis to be true, he would have tossed an iron washbasin into the tub of water instead of an iron horseshoe.1